Issue #004
ON_Sport is diving into the last stronghold of the rapidly changing world of professional sports — the fan experience. Unlike other media verticals, the fan experience has been largely insulated against disruption; live sports has been one of the last bastions of linear broadcast media, a vast and mature market where regional relationships drive market activity and predictable consumer behaviors.
This stability is facing a triple threat of unstoppable disruption: the unbundling of ESPN, the rise of online gambling/fantasy, and the memification of highlights. These forces are resetting fan expectations for how they consume the game, what matters most to their experience, and where business opportunities lie in an uncertain future.
The intergenerational transfer of fanatical devotion of a local team is going to fundamentally change in the new media and digital landscape; but the love of the game will remain. How will that love be witnessed, monetized, and mediated in an uncertain future?
THOUGHT STARTER
If you had $100 million, where would you invest it for the best 10-year return?
This is the first question we asked at the ON_Sport Nashville event we had in October. Answers ranged from a minority investment in an established NFL team, to full ownership of a lower league or a small market soccer team, to investing in Topgolf for tennis, to investing and making bowling huge, to a Davos-like sports summit for the business of sports, to pickleball, to women’s sports, to technology, etc.
The best investment is not exactly obvious. What is clear is that the landscape is shifting.
Provocation
Are live sports rights a bursting media bubble?
Media rights have long been the cash cow of professional sports. Can this system sustain long-term profitability amidst our changing digital landscape and unbundling of cable distribution?
We found a few people to share their perspective:
AND
[ Who Knows ]
The future of live sports rights in streaming is drama
Can insurgent leagues capture market share from the NFL?
In our numerous virtual and in-person events, the topic of “the NFL is god and immune” to all the forces that seem to be challenging the NBA and MLB. What makes the NFL so powerful? Is it designed for TV? Is it just a better sport? It certainly isn’t internationally.
We used to have one or two live NFL game broadcasts per week. Then came Sunday Night Football, followed by Monday Night Football, and finally Thursday Night Football. The growth didn’t end there. We got NFL Sunday Ticket with access to all the games, then NFL RedZone, followed by fantasy, and of course betting. Finally, we added analysis to fill in the time in between.
Meanwhile, insurgent sports in the US have been innovating to keep up with changing fan behavior. Think about the pickleball takeover, Topgolf, Street FC, Messi’s MLS and Apple deal, the MLB pitch count, the midseason NBA tournament, and so on. New behaviors and innovation are popping up and feeding off each other.
Yes, but…
And also…
[ YES ]
Sports need to be careful not to turn off traditional fans.
LIV Golf has threaded the needle in golf innovation. While the organization added several features to make the game more engaging for a modern audience, it has been careful not to go too far.
and…
[ NOT QUITE ]
Sports need to completely reimagine the games and put fans in control.
Fan-controlled sports and entertainment has taken transforming the game to the extreme. We’ve thrown away most of the rule book and given fans direct access to how the game is played, to the point where fans call the actual plays.
and…
[ PROBABLY ]
Digital engagement trends are diminishing the best part of the live experience.
One of the most captivating aspects of sports is the raw emotion and spontaneity—think last-second goals, unexpected comebacks, or even just the roar of the crowd. Over-engineered technology might sterilize these elements, creating a more controlled but ultimately less exciting experience.
Aly Wagner doesn’t need gimmicks to bring fans to women’s soccer
EPISODE 8:
Aly Wagner says launching a soccer team is harder than raising triplets
On Playing Business, we interviewed Aly Wagner, a former professional soccer player, an Olympic gold medalist, and a co-founder of Bay FC, about driving fan engagement in a new franchise and a developing league.