AI is too

immature

for your
business

From the editor: One of our most credentialed AI experts shared some essential perspectives for companies betting on AI. This speaker has a PhD in Brain and Cognitive Sciences, and has been working on machine learning models for over 15 years. As always, ON_Discourse operates under the Chatham House Rule—no attribution of perspectives without explicit consent.

AI is an

adolescent

This tech revolution is built on bad behavior.

AI behaves like a teenager. It is moody, unreliable, and unpredictable. It needs constant supervision.

Are you sure you want this kind of technology driving business decisions?

Without any guardrails in place, AI models trained on text scraped from the internet swear at you, call you names, go off on sexist and racist rants, and so on. These are very teenager things to do: saying something just to say something, without realizing what it actually means, how bad it is, or what the repercussions in society might be.

Companies form so-called red teams to perform adversarial testing on their AI systems. These tests try to make an AI model do all the worst stuff possible, so that the companies can then prevent it from doing that stuff when it’s talking to their users.

Many people don’t realize that a lot of the work around AI currently involves babysitting models so that the end user doesn’t realize that the tech needs to be babysat. In short, companies are hiding how incredibly immature AI still is.

Keep this in mind before, during, and after you deploy any sort of AI tech across your organization.

This article is part of The Intelligently Artificial Issue, which combines two big stories in consumer tech: AI and CES.

Read more from the issue:

USER EXPERIENCE

Augmented Intelligence: from UX to HX

Will prompting replace browsing?

The car is the gateway drug to a voice-first acceleration

The prompt interface needs a redesign

RE-ORG

AI will brainstorm your next reorg

Expect fewer managers and direct-reports

AI is too immature for your business

AI is not a new revolution

BRAND

Should we ignore the hardware?

Can AI help consumers love your brand?

Your brand doesn't have enough data for AI

Can LLMs be optimized like search results?

Good brands will integrate more friction into their CX

Expect

fewer

managers

and

‏‏‎ ‎direct‏‏‎
‏‏ reports‏‏‎ ‎‎

From the editor: This overheard passage comes from a virtual event that featured a productive disagreement between members. In this piece you’ll see two opposing perspectives about the well-worn assumption that AI will replace labor. As always, ON_Discourse operates under the Chatham House rule—no attribution of perspectives without explicit consent.

‏‏‎ ‎Yes,‏‏‎ and here's why

AI could accelerate the flattening of organizations

MBA programs didn’t prepare anyone for this. The accelerating adoption of AI tools could completely redefine how businesses organize. The first dominos to fall will be the HR and management layers. At first glance this seems like a bad thing, but it’s not…

Growing
without
headcount

Today’s model is fundamentally stupid—I don’t mean that pejoratively. Managers are incentivized to grow their teams regardless of need. Why? Having more direct reports leads to more promotions and more raises for managers. This sustains a conventional growth model that leads to overhiring and layoffs.

AI tools will disrupt the need for companies to grow their workforces by injecting intelligence and data into this dumb growth model. The knee-jerk reaction to such a shift typically sounds like, “If we don’t grow our teams, how are we ever going to get promoted and have a career path?”

This thinking is rooted in the assumption that a hierarchy and a climbing mentality are required for growth. AI tools will reveal that this is not the case, and adding people will not be seen as a requirement for revenue growth.

Instead, revenue growth could be achieved while keeping headcount flat, or even through reductions. Many non-revenue-generating roles, like in HR and middle management, will start to disappear. Active executors that have a more direct relationship with the bottom line of the organization will replace them.

Focusing
on what
matters

People managers who remain will have more time to focus on their hands-on efforts. These individuals were good enough at doing something to get promoted. Their employers will develop metrics and goals around those skills, unlocking an entrepreneurial spirit.

Instead of adding more people to manage, people managers will become more focused on outcomes. AI tools could help incentivize individual contributors based on what uniquely motivates them and the impact they can make.

On the HR side, plenty of functions could be handled by AI, possibly with less bias, more clarity, and more transparency. The processes could be opened up and deployed more equally across teams.

More layers and hierarchy only distract from revenue-generating functions and complicate decision-making.

Better
outcomes

This has important knock-on effects. Non-revenue-generating roles pull businesses further away from their customers and the outcomes they want. More layers and hierarchy only distract from revenue-generating functions and complicate decision-making, whereas fewer non-essential roles could mean more focus on translating user needs to products and services.

Some argue that AI can just help bring all the data needed for decisions to the top of the organization, but that’s backward. Why bother having such a structure? Instead, flatten your organization and empower more people to make decisions closer to the customer.

AI tools will disrupt the need for companies to grow their workforces by injecting intelligence and data into this dumb growth model. The knee-jerk reaction to such a shift typically sounds like, “If we don’t grow our teams, how are we ever going to get promoted and have a career path?”

This article is part of The Intelligently Artificial Issue, which combines two big stories in consumer tech: AI and CES.

Read more from the issue:

USER EXPERIENCE

Augmented Intelligence: from UX to HX

Will prompting replace browsing?

The car is the gateway drug to a voice-first acceleration

The prompt interface needs a redesign

RE-ORG

AI will brainstorm your next reorg

Expect fewer managers and direct-reports

AI is too immature for your business

AI is not a new revolution

BRAND

Should we ignore the hardware?

Can AI help consumers love your brand?

Your brand doesn't have enough data for AI

Can LLMs be optimized like search results?

Good brands will integrate more friction into their CX

I totally ‏‏‎ ‎disagree‏‏‎

AI will need many more managers

I agree with
you on two
important
points

I agree with you on
two important points

  1. No conventional MBA graduates in management are prepared for the AI era.
  2. The proliferation of AI products and services will change management structures.

The rest, you have backwards. The number of managers is going to grow significantly in the near future. We are going to need more people to manage the adolescent that is AI.

Adding AI products and services to the toolbox creates a new output signal that businesses need to wrangle. This in turn calls for another human layer to figure out how the AI tools are performing and how they are changing the way we ingest new information.

We are going to need more people to manage the adolescent that is AI.

AI tools could create
a lot more noise
for decision makers

Because we have more signals coming in, we will ultimately make better decisions. Those additional signals, however, require more data science teams, more linguists, more operational people, more people managing how the models are performing, more people monitoring any human bias that is going into those models, and so on.

Industry expertise will remain vital. Companies will demand subject matter experts who decipher the truth within AI-generated content.

There are limitations to what AI can produce. Only humans can figure out that last critical bit. Non-technical roles, filled by creative and culturally-aware individuals who bridge technical jargon and diverse global perspectives, will grow in importance.

In fact, we might see high demand for managers who can attract the right mix of these unique, multidisciplinary groups of people, and know how to get them to work together productively and efficiently. AI simply doesn’t have the people skills to manage divergent perspectives and disciplines into a cohesive group.

More technology will once again require more humans to manage it.

Your brand does
not have enough
data for AI

This article is part of The Intelligently Artificial Issue, which combines two big stories in consumer tech: AI and CES.

Read more from the issue:

USER EXPERIENCE

Augmented Intelligence: from UX to HX

Will prompting replace browsing?

The car is the gateway drug to a voice-first acceleration

The prompt interface needs a redesign

RE-ORG

AI will brainstorm your next reorg

Expect fewer managers and direct-reports

AI is too immature for your business

AI is not a new revolution

BRAND

Should we ignore the hardware?

Can AI help consumers love your brand?

Your brand doesn't have enough data for AI

Can LLMs be optimized like search results?

Good brands will integrate more friction into their CX

From the editor: One of our most credentialed AI experts shared some essential perspectives for companies betting on AI. This speaker has a PhD in Brain and Cognitive Sciences, and has been working on machine learning models for over 15 years. As always, ON_Discourse operates under the Chatham House Rule—no attribution of perspectives without explicit consent.

You need an
enormous amount

This is one of the AI era’s most
under-appreciated assumptions.

In the AI era, everyone seems to have convinced themselves that their company has the best data. You likely believe that not only is your data just the best, but it also happens to be just so unique that the resulting AI model is going to supercharge your whole business.

This is wrong, for two reasons:

  1. You have too little data. You need billions or even trillions of heterogeneous observations to be able to do anything interesting with AI. There are only a handful of companies today that possess that quantity.
  2. Your data is of poor quality. Even most large enterprises do not have a dataset rich enough to make a meaningful AI play. They rely on buying data from multiple sources or stealing it from internet users under the guise of fair use.

Many companies are opting for a shortcut into AI. Any company today can implement base GPT models. That works for experimentation, but it won’t drive revenue or improve efficiency. Why? AI is not trustworthy. You need to hire experienced teams to manage its bad behaviors.

For almost every single company, trying to build something bespoke that will move the needle is simply not worth the investment.

Your brand does
not have enough
data for AI

This article is part of The Intelligently Artificial Issue, which combines two big stories in consumer tech: AI and CES.

Read more from the issue:

USER EXPERIENCE

Augmented Intelligence: from UX to HX

Will prompting replace browsing?

The car is the gateway drug to a voice-first acceleration

The prompt interface needs a redesign

RE-ORG

AI will brainstorm your next reorg

Expect fewer managers and direct-reports

AI is too immature for your business

AI is not a new revolution

BRAND

Should we ignore the hardware?

Can AI help consumers love your brand?

Your brand doesn't have enough data for AI

Can LLMs be optimized like search results?

Good brands will integrate more friction into their CX

From the editor: One of our most credentialed AI experts shared some essential perspectives for companies betting on AI. This speaker has a PhD in Brain and Cognitive Sciences, and has been working on machine learning models for over 15 years. As always, ON_Discourse operates under the Chatham House Rule—no attribution of perspectives without explicit consent.

You need an
enormous amount

This is one of the AI era’s most
under-appreciated assumptions.

In the AI era, everyone seems to have convinced themselves that their company has the best data. You likely believe that not only is your data just the best, but it also happens to be just so unique that the resulting AI model is going to supercharge your whole business.

This is wrong, for two reasons:

  1. You have too little data. You need billions or even trillions of heterogeneous observations to be able to do anything interesting with AI. There are only a handful of companies today that possess that quantity.
  2. Your data is of poor quality. Even most large enterprises do not have a dataset rich enough to make a meaningful AI play. They rely on buying data from multiple sources or stealing it from internet users under the guise of fair use.

Many companies are opting for a shortcut into AI. Any company today can implement base GPT models. That works for experimentation, but it won’t drive revenue or improve efficiency. Why? AI is not trustworthy. You need to hire experienced teams to manage its bad behaviors.

For almost every single company, trying to build something bespoke that will move the needle is simply not worth the investment.

Can AI

help
consumers

love
your
brand?

From the editor: Ahead of our CES trip, we held a spirited discussion about the future of brands in the AI era. One of our most provocative discussions centered on the idea that AI functionality can unlock deeper relationships with brands. Is this true? Or are post-purchase activation schemes a rehash of old ideas?

Laura Del Greco
Founder and CEO, MUSAY

Yes, here's how...

Invest in differentiated activation experiences - with AI’s help.

Think about the brands you trust and love—the ones you rely on to do a job better than any of their competitors. If they’re smart, they’re always looking for ways to grow their relationship with you by becoming more meaningful. The stronger their relationship with you becomes, the greater their margin and pricing power.

True brand power is a high CLTV to CAC ratio and customers who say, to misquote a line from Brokeback Mountain, “I can’t quit you.”   

AI WON’T change this reality because we’re human and we want the decision shortcuts brands give us.  

AI WILL exacerbate the need for brand relationship building and give brand marketers a powerful tool with which to do it.

AI WILL ALSO muddy the waters for brands fighting for differentiation, and a share of a consumers’ heart and wallet. There is a way around this.

Brands live on a continuum from branded commodities (oatmilk, sugar, etc.) to “n of 1” companies (Instagram, Carta, Slack, Apple, etc.). While AI will impact all of these brands, from their products to how they show up in the world, it’s the brands in the middle for which AI presents the biggest threat… and the biggest opportunity for innovation and relationship building.

The muddy AI water: generative AI for brand differentiation isn’t “all that.”

So, how can brands differentiate in the AI era and how can AI help?

To answer this question, forget about technology and AI for a moment.

Human nature doesn’t change and marketers know what makes consumers tick. They also know their brand’s personality, how it lives in the world and the moments, outside of purchase, where a consumer might find the brand relevant or useful. This is basic brand activation, but done more thoughtfully so a brand can continue to endear itself to the consumer. (And if you’re thinking about activations as “personalized rewards” post-purchase, that’s cool… but that isn’t really this – or it isn’t all of this!)

Brand activation, especially the post-purchase “hours” of 8:00 PM to 12:00 AM on a brand strategy clock, help a brand break free from the sameness of AI-generated digital mind melds and put the consumer at the center to grow the relationship. Using brand activations, marketers can wrest control of AI and use it to their advantage via interactions that unlock contextual customer data and insights, which help marketers ideate ways for a brand to authentically show up in the world and be relevant in ways that extend beyond product use.

Strategic post-purchase brand activation builds a flywheel of engagement, a more efficient allocation of human and financial capital from advertising to brand engagement and, ultimately, to an increase in CLTV/CAC.

In brief, a brand team’s hard-won epiphany of how its brand is differentiated is communicated to the consumer in ways that reinforce past purchase behavior, incentivize repeat purchase behavior, and ideally make the brand part of someone’s life and perhaps their identity.

If you listen to Spotify, you were recently treated to their Wrapped experience. If you fly Delta, you just received a visual summary of all the ways Delta helped you in 2023—your most visited cities, flights, and upgrades. They also reminded you how they could help you in 2024. These weren’t fancy, but they were useful, relevant, and designed to meet the consumer, (me, in this case), where they are beyond the purchase moment.

These examples are only two of the countless ways a brand can authentically have a meaningful activation moment; the best ones will grow their relationship with the consumer. This is where AI insights can help. Traditional and social media channels can do this, but they can be expensive and aren’t designed to deliver the nuanced, relationship building, context that is possible here.

If you know me, you know I’m an early adopter who is always looking for ways to use technology to meet the consumer where they are. I look at AI as a tool to do just that. That said, there is no single “right” way to move forward, but move forward we must. After all, DVDs and CDs used to be billion dollar businesses until new technology came to town.

Even if you’re not 100% sold on the concept of AI-informed post-purchase activations and experiences, I urge you to entertain the possibility. It’s just good business.

Your opportunity

By its very definition, a brand must be differentiated enough from its competitors to outsell its competitors. 

To get the desired output of dynamic, differentiated positioning, you need dynamic differentiated input AND an ability to create connections between disparate elements. This is really hard to do—it’s a never-ending battle. There are conference rooms strewn with takeout containers and overfilled trash cans from weary product teams trying to win the war. (Coke vs. Pepsi, anyone?)

Unfortunately, differentiation isn’t enough. Today’s consumer faces a cacophony of SEO-driven messaging and data overload that threatens to water down the positioning born from years of brand research, insights, and takeout containers.

The instinct to use generative AI as a positioning tool shortcut makes sense and yet, it’s risky. Large Language Models (LLMs) are still relatively new and they’re currently processing and converting structured, unstructured, and dark data from everywhere without nuance or a critical eye. In other words, generative AI positioning is a regression to the mean and without a human’s watchful eye can be a melting pot of average.

This article is part of The Intelligently Artificial Issue, which combines two big stories in consumer tech: AI and CES.

Read more from the issue:

USER EXPERIENCE

Augmented Intelligence: from UX to HX

Will prompting replace browsing?

The car is the gateway drug to a voice-first acceleration

The prompt interface needs a redesign

RE-ORG

AI will brainstorm your next reorg

Expect fewer managers and direct-reports

AI is too immature for your business

AI is not a new revolution

BRAND

Should we ignore the hardware?

Can AI help consumers love your brand?

Your brand doesn't have enough data for AI

Can LLMs be optimized like search results?

Good brands will integrate more friction into their CX

Not really

There's no research to confirm customers want relationships with brands.

The first thing I have to say before we get into any debate about the future of AI is that no one knows what will happen. Anyone that gives you a more confident answer to questions is definitely full of shit.

Regarding your perspective: we partially agree on an important point:   

Overheard at
ON_Discourse

Anonymous under
Chatham House Rules

My agreement with you comes with a caveat: if we reduced a brand to the values in a manifesto or the colors of a logo, then the averaging out of brands in generative AI experiences would be a problem.

But… that is not how I believe brands work. I believe Byron Sharp’s theory about how brands grow. A brand emerges over time, after the audience embeds its signals in their collective memories. A generative AI model is a reflection of what is already out in the air. I’ve been experimenting with different models and am seeing that many models seem to distinguish between strong brands and vague ones.

We kind of agree that customer-facing generative experiences are homogenizing brand elements.

You place a lot of emphasis on pre and post-purchase activation. I take another angle. Differentiation will come from good creative marketing, which is less common than it should be. Strong brands have been living on the dividends that were paid thirty years ago. Now is the time for creativity. As this technology propagates, more middling brands will elevate their creative output into a generic median – good enough output. Human creativity, augmented by AI capabilities, will further distinguish strong brands from that median.

We also kind of agree that brands need to find a way to distinguish themselves from each other.

You are describing a mass personalization experience across most CPG brands. I’ll just state it like this: there is no research to suggest that consumers want a relationship with brands. The buyers of Crest of Colgate are not interested in joining a social network dedicated to whiter teeth. They buy their respective brands based on the same theories that have driven marketing for generations.

Finally, I do not agree with your point about post-purchase opportunities.

Laura Del Greco
Founder and CEO, MUSAY

Yes, they do!

Now is the time for brands to invest in differentiated activation experiences - with AI's help.

Noah, you’re right.  There are post- purchase activations that are irrelevant, annoying, time consuming, and invasive; no one wants those!  Not having insight into how the survey was conducted, my gut is that when people were asked about brand follow-up they had the annoying kind in mind.  

To quote Scott Galloway from “No Mercy / No Malice”, “brand is Latin for irrational margin”, and the best ones drive that margin by being omnipresent and meaningful, especially post purchase. It’s a way to reinforce behavior, stay top of mind, and reduce the need to advertise in conventional ways. Brands live everywhere they need to and maintain their margin via post-purchase activation and foundational brand building.  
 
Many of the people who said they didn’t want post-purchase brand engagement probably shop at an Apple store, (itself a form of post-purchase engagement), use the post-purchase activation that is the Genius Bar, and tune into Apple events. In other words, post-purchase activations can be covert and feel seamless, which is probably the best way.
 
For a covert activation combined with foundational brand building, look at the Tide. Tide’s environmental research efforts,  (e.g. cold water washing for the environment), their WWF partnership, product innovation in stain removal, and their“Loads of Hope” community program are all authentic Tide moments and reinforce what people think of Tide, and, what they think of themselves.. They’re done to keep the brand top of mind and psychologically reward purchase.  Tide appeals to people’s hearts (we help you save the planet, help others, and keep your, and your family’s, clothes clean).  

Tide’s post-purchase activations are subtle and the “distribution channels” are primarily PR and co-branding, (awards such as ”Better Homes and Gardens”) targeted towards their core consumer.  Because I’m hard to reach via advertising, and a Tide loyalist, my interaction with the brand was via a Malcom Gladwell podcast about laundry! (highly recommend)
 
Think too about Lululemon – in-store classes, free hemming, repairs ... consumers WANT this!  They just don’t think about these as post-purchase activations, so they would say “no” if asked. And if you’re a baker, King Arthur has done a spectacular job of creating a premium flour brand with their cookbooks and digital resources. (I’m a fan of this brand too!)
 
The level of activation has to be commensurate with the meaning a brand has in someone’s life and the job it does.  It’s even better if it’s seamlessly woven into someone’s life in a relevant way.  
 
For overt activation, think of any automotive brand. The brand is always in touch with you via their app, their service and their special edition mugs (that maybe someone buys!). They also rely on their sales force to help you stay wedded to their brand. Also, for overt but “in service to the consumer,” think Apple, Nike, Nespresso, Disney, Delta, Amex, etc.  
 
Can AI help any of the brand teams behind these and other brands gather insights to continue to elevate? Of course!
 
P.S. A bit closer to home I just noticed that Piano.io -  Analytics & Activation is building out a third space in the Flatiron district of NYC. I have no idea if AI was used to deliver consumer analytics that inspired that brand activation experience, but it could have!

True brand power is a high CLTV to CAC ratio and customers who say, to misquote a line from Brokeback Mountain, “I can’t quit you.”   

The

prompt interface

needs a

redesign

No, it doesn't

We need “smarter” humans, not design

Henrik Werdelin
Co-founder of BARK (BarkBox) and Founding Partner of Prehype, a venture development firm

Everybody hates chatbots. And yet, the fastest growing consumer-facing technology in human history is basically a chatbot. Is there a problem here? Is this a good moment for a design intervention?

Let me start with a fundamental question: why do people hate chatbots? Is it the design, or the experience?

Historically, conventional customer service chatbots were insanely annoying and, critically for users, fundamentally dumb. They locked users in a recursive loop of unanswerable questions that yielded no results; the only escape from this torture was to force a connection with a human.

In this moment, the human represents context and the ability to reason, while the bot represents a brick wall. So let me answer the first question: the reason people hate chatbots is the experience. The design is fine.

What happens when the conventional chatbot interface is replaced by a different backend technology? Generative AI is doing this right now by breathing artificial cognition into the brick wall, giving it the ability to convert context into reason, turning the whole interface on its head. No more need for any human intervention.

Layering generative AI into chatbots introduces two problems that a redesign cannot solve.

The first problem: humans are biased against chatbots.

They see the interface and automatically expect a conventionally dumb experience. This also happens when you see a website with a web 1.0 design. As a result, they enter into the experience with a lower level of engagement that affects the quality of their prompts. As the saying goes: garbage in, garbage out.

This article is part of The Intelligently Artificial Issue, which combines two big stories in consumer tech: AI and CES.

Read more from the issue:

USER EXPERIENCE

Augmented Intelligence: from UX to HX

Will prompting replace browsing?

The car is the gateway drug to a voice-first acceleration

The prompt interface needs a redesign

RE-ORG

AI will brainstorm your next reorg

Expect fewer managers and direct-reports

AI is too immature for your business

AI is not a new revolution

BRAND

Should we ignore the hardware?

Can AI help consumers love your brand?

Your brand doesn't have enough data for AI

Can LLMs be optimized like search results?

Good brands will integrate more friction into their CX

The second problem: humans are mostly lazy.

They imagine that a generative chatbot is going to magically read their mind and solve humanistic conscientious tasks with minimal effort. This perspective influences the quality of their prompts and the scrutiny they give to the responses. This looks a little different than the first bias: generic prompts generate generic responses that are accepted without a second thought because most don’t realize how much better the output can be. 

I have seen user testing experiments that confirm the second problem. Two user groups were asked to brainstorm creative ideas for an imaginary product. One group was given an AI chatbot while the other was given paper and pencils. The AI group produced the least interesting ideas and devoted the least amount of thinking to the assignment (until they were taught how to work optimally with the chatbot).

So let me sum up my argument: The AI chatbot interface does not need a redesign. It needs humans to catch up to its capacity. This involves something bigger than UX design.

Humans need to become better at conversation. This is going to take time, but it won’t be the first time.

I have been working on the internet since the 1990s. I spent time demonstrating internet browsers to executives who were still asking their assistants to print out webpages for them to read. Those executives were uncomfortable by the technology and simply needed more time to evolve. Going back further in the technology timeline, the keyboard and mouse triggered the same response. Sometimes, the design is not the problem and humans just need time to adapt.

Yes, it does

Design can make chat a better experience

Michael Treff
CEO, Code & Theory Co-Founder, ON_Discourse

It is hard for me to disagree with an argument that is so well-structured. But Henrik, this is ON_Discourse and we have to live by our creed. I think your approach to this topic is overlooking the impact of design and where we are in the adoption curve of AI semantic prompt-interfaces like chatbots we see in ChatGPT or text bars like we see in Google Search.

Before we get there, let me start by recognizing your strongest point:

The mouse and keyboard are an excellent analogy for generative AI chatbots. The analogy works because it acknowledges the transformational context that follows these interfaces. To put it bluntly, there was no precedent for either the mouse or generative AI at the release of either of those products. In both cases, it is natural to accept an elongated adoption curve. Sometimes, the burden just falls on people to figure it out.

But I am concerned by the focus of your argument. At the end of the day, the novelty of this tech does not relinquish the role and value of good design. Do you remember the AOL portal? For a limited time in the 1990’s, this was the predominant way most Americans accessed the internet. It had a design language so ubiquitous that it nearly defined the early-internet. Then new designs and platforms emerged for new behaviors that slowly disintegrated this design system.

When I think about the evolution of semantic chat experiences in the AI era, I see the same massive opportunity that you see, but I think of it in a different way. I’ll break it down in a few ways:

Good interface design focuses on behaviors.

The interfaces that win online are those that more accurately deliver an existing behavior in a better way. Tik-Tok pioneered a new interface for video creation and consumption without instruction manuals. Not only did this interface drive historic audience growth, it also fed an explosion of new UI paradigms for non-content experiences (from news feeds to credit card applications). Good design can accelerate the learning curve without being explicit.

At the end of the day, the novelty of this tech does not relinquish the role and value of good design.

The prompt-era is just beginning.

The use-cases for this interface are still in the proverbial laboratory. This is not the same context of the keyboard or mouse which was one of the essential catalysts of the personal computer revolution. It unlocked new ways of thinking about screen design, leading to the GUI, which ultimately brings us to our own digital discourse. AI is different. It is already propagating in the back-end operations of forward-facing companies. They are using this technology to drive internal creative sessions, augment audience research, and develop deeper customer profiles.

The jury is still out on the prompt.

I have no doubt that the prompt will become an essential interface on the internet, but I question whether it will become the dominant interface. The internet has evolved a number of optimized user experiences that are not served by an open-ended prompt experience. Let me put it this way; I’m not convinced that we are solving consumer problems by replacing context clues on a page with an open-ended prompt experience. In this vein, the customer is burdened with prompting in the right way to get the desired outcomes. I don’t feel like that is an improvement to what we have now (though I understand the impulse to consider it).

The technology behind the prompt is undoubtedly amazing and transformational. I agree that it promises to elevate our collective ability to use conversation to better understand our own needs and to find the information we need. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t assume the current interaction models are the future models. Additionally, when we ultimately deliver this tech, as with everything else that goes in front of consumers, it deserves a thoughtful, considered design.

Augmented

Intelligence:

from

UX to HX

Craig Elimeliah
Chief Creative Officer, Code and Theory

Editor’s note: ON_Discourse co-founder Dan Gardner argues that human behavior is the ultimate prompt. This article explores what this means for user interface design.

Augmented Intelligence (AI) is becoming an everyday reality, fundamentally transforming how we interact with our world. Its primary driver is human behavior, the main “prompt” for AI development and application.

This shift challenges us to reconsider the role of AI in our lives, focusing on how it shapes and responds to human actions and decisions. I believe this evolution will be marked by a transition from User Experience (UX) to Human Experience (HX), wherein technological innovation emphasizes, rather than obscures, humanity’s essence.

This is a critical moment. We are at the forefront of a design renaissance, wherein our focus is shifting from mere interfaces to meaningful interactions, from digital screens to the human psyche. Transitioning from UX to HX signals a shift from interface-driven design to a more empathetic, behavior-centric approach.

We are at the forefront of a design renaissance, wherein our focus is shifting from mere interfaces to meaningful interactions, from digital screens to the human psyche.

In this new age, technology will become more than a tool. We won’t just be using AI algorithms and automation, we will be building a symbiotic relationship that marries AI’s analytical strengths with human intuition and insights.

While such a synergy can accelerate and amplify our abilities, it also brings forth a critical challenge: ensuring that AI augments human creativity and intuition without overshadowing them. We must not overlook the ethical implications of an AI-driven HX. Personalization in AI, while beneficial, raises privacy concerns. We must grapple with these ethical challenges head-on, ensuring that AI’s incursion into our lives respects our privacy and adheres to ethical standards.

One of the assumptions in our AI-driven journey is the belief that AI can fully understand and replicate the depth of human emotions and behaviors. Here lies a potential pitfall. We must strike a balance between leveraging AI’s capabilities and preserving human intuition and ethics in design.

For HX to work, I envision AI transcending traditional data analysis to offer a nuanced understanding of human emotions and behaviors. Imagine a customer service chatbot that can detect frustration in a conversation and respond with empathy, or e-commerce AI that suggests products based on emotional cues.

This article is part of The Intelligently Artificial Issue, which combines two big stories in consumer tech: AI and CES.

Read more from the issue:

USER EXPERIENCE

Augmented Intelligence: from UX to HX

Will prompting replace browsing?

The car is the gateway drug to a voice-first acceleration

The prompt interface needs a redesign

RE-ORG

AI will brainstorm your next reorg

Expect fewer managers and direct-reports

AI is too immature for your business

AI is not a new revolution

BRAND

Should we ignore the hardware?

Can AI help consumers love your brand?

Your brand doesn't have enough data for AI

Can LLMs be optimized like search results?

Good brands will integrate more friction into their CX

In health care, AI could evolve to support doctors by providing data-driven insights while preserving the irreplaceable human element in diagnosis and patient care. In education, AI could adapt to students' emotional states, offering personalized encouragement and learning paths.

These scenarios underscore the shift towards ethical AI design, where algorithms must be crafted with diverse datasets and regularly audited to prevent biases, ensuring fairness and inclusivity. 

The AI era must also be characterized by transparency, with companies openly disclosing how their AI technology uses consumer data, thereby fostering trust. AI in smart homes, for example, should recognize and respect individuals' privacy preferences, ensuring that family boundaries are maintained.

As human behavior becomes the new prompt, it will become clear that the role of HX is not just to understand, but to respect and enhance human actions and emotions. The future will not be determined just by the sophistication of experiences that AI can create, but by how these experiences honor and elevate our humanity.

Will

prompting

replace

browsing?

From the editor: The AI era has ushered in a new way of content interaction: prompting. This article explores two views on what will happen to another interaction model: browsing.

Anthony DeRosa
Head of Content and Product, ON_Discourse

No, it won't.

Generative AI is transforming content consumption, starting with just a prompt. This shift begs a critical question: Are we overestimating the desire to engage with content through AI prompts, and underestimating the timeless value of traditional browsing?

The enduring appeal of browsing


Browsing—the act of casually exploring content without a specific goal—has been an intrinsic part of human behavior long before the digital era. It caters to our innate curiosity and desire for serendipitous discovery. In contrast to AI-prompted interactions, where responses are generated based on specific user inputs, browsing allows users to stumble upon unexpected content, leading to new ideas and inspirations.

I spoke to Tyler Chance, a VP of Product at Hearst, who questions whether a prompt-first interface can lead to a better user experience.

“I don’t know what replaces the browse. If the entire Netflix homepage were to go away and just be an input prompt… because now, I’ve watched everything that I know I want. How do I get to the things that I don’t know I want?”

It is about the dopamine, the slow dopamine drip of a browse."

people browse in a mall set within a smart phone

The prompt paradigm

AI technologies have introduced a new way of interacting with content. AI systems like chatbots and recommendation engines provide users with content based on direct prompts or past behavior. This approach, while efficient, is rooted in the assumption that users always have a clear intent or preference when engaging with content, which is not always the case.

We must consider the balance between intent-based consumption and discovery through browsing. While AI excels in delivering content tailored to specific queries, it may not always capture the joy of spontaneous discovery that browsing offers. 

This article is part of The Intelligently Artificial Issue, which combines two big stories in consumer tech: AI and CES.

Read more from the issue:

USER EXPERIENCE

Augmented Intelligence: from UX to HX

Will prompting replace browsing?

The car is the gateway drug to a voice-first acceleration

The prompt interface needs a redesign

RE-ORG

AI will brainstorm your next reorg

Expect fewer managers and direct-reports

AI is too immature for your business

AI is not a new revolution

BRAND

Should we ignore the hardware?

Can AI help consumers love your brand?

Your brand doesn't have enough data for AI

Can LLMs be optimized like search results?

Good brands will integrate more friction into their CX

User preferences: new or familiar?

Do people currently spend more time seeking specific information or exploring content without a predetermined goal? This question extends to user interface preferences. Do people genuinely seek a new way of interacting with content, or is there comfort and satisfaction in traditional methods? While some may argue that current content consumption methods are outdated and inefficient, others find value in the familiar experience of browsing, suggesting resistance to completely adopting prompt-based interfaces.

Chance believes that it would be hard to break away from how attractive, addictive, and spontaneous the browsing experience is, as opposed to one where you’re expected to know the right way to prompt or always have a specific intent.

“Just think about the notion of UX over the last like, 10 years," Chance said. “It is about the dopamine, the slow dopamine drip of a browse. That is what the social feed is. That is what you know. That’s where we start. We start and then we hone and that is going to be a really hard nut to crack because it is the place to go when you have zero intent and you want to craft an intent.” 

The argument for AI-driven content discovery is flawed. The assumption that users always have a clear intent is overstated, while browsing without a specific goal can lead to discovering content that one might not have known existed. Additionally, AI systems, while advanced, don’t understand the nuances of human curiosity and the desire for serendipity.

Emil Protalinski
Managing Editor, ON_Discourse

Yes, it will (sorta).

Something was bothering me, and I couldn’t figure out what the query should be. All I could remember was that “an investor at some point in time spotted a trend wherein the first few days of January set the tone for the rest of the year.” This was not enough for a Google search, or at least not enough to avoid a lot of furious and frustrated clicking.
 
I turned to Perplexity AI. The chatbot’s quick responses, inaccurate or not, led me to remember the phrase “investor’s almanac,” which pointed me to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Perplexity then informed me about “the first five trading days of January” and the “January Barometer.” I then confidently turned to Google, where I satisfied my knowledge gap by browsing and reading a variety of high-quality articles.

This anecdote cemented two realizations for me:
1. Prompting is not a temporary phenomenon.
2. Browsing is not going away.

In a world of just prompting, I would have been stuck wondering what responses were accurate and which were hallucinated. In a world of just searching, I would have spent too long trying to figure out the right query, if I had had the energy to search at all.

Sometimes, humans want to quickly prompt. Other times, we just want to browse.

Hey Siri,

You suck.

Love,

cars

Emil Protalinski
Managing Editor, ON_Discourse

From the editor: Voice tech on smartphones and smart speakers failed to hook users. LLMs could make the car the gateway drug into a voice-first world.

OpenAI released ChatGPT to the world in November 2022, and exactly a year later, in November 2023, rolled out ChatGPT with voice to all its free users. The rollout is part of a long list of voice-based tech launches that overpromise but underdeliver. We’re edging closer to a future where voice can be used as the primary input in increasingly more scenarios (beyond “Google, what’s the temperature outside?” or “Alexa, set a timer for 30 seconds”), but we’re still a long way from a voice-first world.

This article is part of The Intelligently Artificial Issue, which combines two big stories in consumer tech: AI and CES.

Read more from the issue:

USER EXPERIENCE

Augmented Intelligence: from UX to HX

Will prompting replace browsing?

The car is the gateway drug to a voice-first acceleration

The prompt interface needs a redesign

RE-ORG

AI will brainstorm your next reorg

Expect fewer managers and direct-reports

AI is too immature for your business

AI is not a new revolution

BRAND

Should we ignore the hardware?

Can AI help consumers love your brand?

Your brand doesn't have enough data for AI

Can LLMs be optimized like search results?

Good brands will integrate more friction into their CX

The car is the gateway drug to voice-first tech

Since at least March 2023, General Motors, which manufactures Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, and GMC cars and trucks, has reportedly been working on a Microsoft Azure-hosted virtual assistant that leverages the AI models behind ChatGPT. Such an AI assistant could go beyond the simple voice commands available in today’s cars by, for example, informing drivers how to change a flat tire (including by playing an instructional video on the car’s display) or by explaining to drivers the meaning of a diagnostic light on the car’s dashboard, telling them whether they should pull over and maybe even make them an appointment at a local repair shop.

We haven’t heard anything about GM’s project since.

In January 2024, Volkswagen unveiled its first vehicles that integrate ChatGPT into its in-car voice assistant, which will supposedly be able to control the infotainment, navigation, and air conditioning, as well as answer general knowledge questions. The company promises that “this can be helpful on many levels during a car journey: Enriching conversations, clearing up questions, interacting in intuitive language, receiving vehicle-specific information, and much more – purely hands-free." The feature is set to start rolling out “in many production vehicles” in Q2 2024, starting in Europe.

I doubt Volkswagen will issue an OTA update to cars already on the road, meaning that most car owners won’t get this functionality for years. Mercedes, BMW, and Hyundai have also promised to integrate large language models to bolster their in-car voice assistants, but not before 2025.

Carmakers moving slowly does not surprise me. Apple and Google, however, haven’t even bothered to talk about updating Carplay and Android Auto with LLMs.

As a result, people are getting into their cars, launching ChatGPT with voice on their phones, and just talking. They’re using the chatbot as a sounding board to brainstorm. They’re entertaining their kids by letting them ask endless questions. They’re accessing a large chunk of humanity’s knowledge by just talking while driving.

People are doing this behind the wheel because the car is the perfect location for voice input. Billions of car trips occur solo. In most parts of the world, the average occupancy of cars is around 1.5 passengers. Even before voice chatbots and voice assistants, seeing people with their mouth open while driving is common. They’re either talking to themselves, singing to themselves, or talking to someone on a call.

The car is thus a great opportunity for voice tech to shift into gear. Not only is talking alone while driving socially accepted, but the car is an enclosed space. A quiet background reduces conversation misunderstandings with everyone, including voice assistants.

Buttons, knobs, and chatbots

In August 2022, Swedish car magazine Vi Bilägare published a study comparing 11 modern cars with touchscreens against a 17-year-old Volvo V70 without a touchscreen. Vi Bilägare measured the time needed for a driver to perform different simple tasks, such as changing the radio station or adjusting the climate control, while driving at 110 km/h (68 mph). You can guess the result: physical buttons were much less time-consuming to use than touchscreens. The study found that the driver in the worst-performing car needed four times longer to perform the simple tasks than in the best-performing car.

It’s thus no surprise that in 2023, carmakers like Volkswagen (including its subsidiary Porsche), Hyundai, and Nissan took public stances about bringing back buttons and knobs for a safer, more distraction-free driving experience. Touchscreens look great, but they’re not safe and they’re useless for relying on muscle memory.

Neither is opening an app while you’re driving. It’s simply not a good user experience.

Even when my phone is connected to my car, I still find myself grabbing it to perform tasks that I know will be faster or take less effort directly in my hand. Touchscreens are fantastic on phones but largely suck in cars. Conversely, using your voice sucks on the phone but could be fantastic in the car.

Ideally, when I’m in my car, I only need to press physical buttons, turn physical knobs, and talk—or better yet, keep my hands on the wheel and just talk.

LLMs are a huge opportunity to make voice the default mode of interaction in a car, or at least the secondary one to pressing buttons and turning dials. Carmakers are moving away from touchscreens for good reason, and they should be investing in voice tech instead.

At this stage in the race, we should be able to design an assistant that is smart enough to know when I want to turn up the music, when I want to ask about what restaurant used to be on the corner that I just passed, when I am talking to someone in the car, and when I am talking to my car. This is not about what AI can do for me, but what I can do with AI.

I don’t care which company is ultimately responsible for making voice tech the car’s default input, but it needs to happen soon. Once humans get hooked on good tech, we don’t easily let go.

Self-driving cars won't

let voice tech win

Self-driving cars won't let voice tech win

If voice tech can leverage LLMs to conquer the car, it could lead to better voice features for smartphones, smart speakers, and the smart home at large. There’s just one problem with this gateway drug leading to more addiction: there’s not enough time.

Voice tech is not going to happen quickly enough. Technology is moving faster than we can adapt to it. I worry that autonomous cars will be the norm before carmakers and tech companies figure out voice tech.

The window of opportunity is closing: If autonomous vehicles become more prevalent first, humans will quickly become distracted by any number of screens, gadgets, and sex, forgetting to talk to their self-driving cars.

Voice input by default can’t be born on the road if self-driving cars turn it into roadkill.

In a world of autonomous cars, voice isn’t as compelling. If no company gets a generation addicted to voice tech, I may never get to talk to my car.

Early in the AI era, smart devices are still dumb

Emil Protalinski
Managing Editor, ON_Discourse

With CES 2024 closing out last week, we’re beginning to distill and synthesize the most important and unique perspectives as part of our Intelligently Artificial Issue. CES 2024 might be over, but there’s an emerging narrative that we’re just beginning to weave together.

Our hardware vs. software debate led us to a predictable conclusion in the AI era: To build a moat, you can’t rely on just hardware or just software. Instead, business leaders must figure out how to leverage software-enabled hardware to deploy robust data strategies. Your differentiator is not your hardware or your software, but how you are collecting data, extracting utility, and offering insights.

More than just a new TV

We were transfixed by transparent TVs from LG and Samsung, but not because they were the most visually impressive devices to see at the convention. The discussion quickly focused on where such transparent screen tech can best be deployed—retail use cases being more likely than the home.

Quantified health leaps forward

Health was the category with arguably the most promise. We saw devices that suggest more granular diagnostic health data is within reach, pending approvals and clearances from government bodies around the world. While large language models have been trained on text scraped from humanity’s printed word, health care models could soon be trained on data scraped from human bodies. The quantification of our bodies means exponentially more health data, including everyday vitals and patient-led diagnostics, leading to new services, new user experiences, and new business models.

New connected health products from companies like Abbott and Withings, in the home and at the clinic, seem inevitable, collecting far more useful data than current wearables. Although we wondered whether an abundance of health devices and excessive health tracking could lead to new mental health issues, the consensus was that consumer wellness tech could have a profound impact on preventive health care. On the flip side, companies expanded beyond the human body to gimmicks like AI dog collars. We pointed to countless examples of “AI-washing”, wherein companies offer no useful AI capabilities but plenty of marketing material claiming otherwise. Every company wants to be an AI company and we found ourselves frequently weeding out hype from reality.

Every company wants to be an AI company and we found ourselves frequently weeding out hype from reality.

Maze of people at CES

Swapping one buzzword for another

In years past, companies were labeling every product and service as “smart.” Now, companies are prepending, inserting, or appending AI to their brand and product names. Nonsense terms like “bespoke AI” don’t help. We posited on our floor tours that while mentioning AI is currently best for your company valuation, using a term like “smart” is more consumer-friendly and representative of what people want from their technology. It’s only a matter of time before marketers come up with something less ominous than “AI” and as apt as “smart” for brands to promote.

Brands, organizations, and UX

Speaking of brands, ON_Members at our briefing event debated whether AI will turn most brands into commodities and whether brands will lose their importance or become more valuable than ever before. There was a general agreement that employers need to hire more experts who understand the human experience, not more experts who understand AI. We also discussed how the AI age could be an opportunity to bring more of the human condition into the user experience.

The death of the smartphone?

The UX discussion often centered on the latest trend of supplementing or outright replacing the smartphone, and what interface would be required for such a device to be successful. These devices fall into two categories: new gadgets, like Humane’s Ai Pin, and AR/VR.

Rabbit’s R1, a palm-sized smart personal assistant device that doesn’t run any apps but can connect to your existing apps, created a lot of buzz. It’s sobering to remember that plenty of CES products, including the exciting ones, ultimately flop (relatedly, Humane wasn’t at CES but laid off some staff during the same week).

User holds phone in front of a crowd of people

We spotted plenty of products that were solutions in search of a problem. AI and smart labels aside, most devices are still dumb: they’re not anticipating our needs and thus can’t take any useful action.

Even if nothing seemed ready for prime time, the most striking innovation seemed to be around input devices, spanning wrist wearables, smart mirrors, and even AR/VR controllers that tap into our bodies’ electrical signals. We saw that AR/VR still isn’t ready in 2024, even with Apple’s usual attempt to try to steal CES, this time with some Vision Pro news.

VR is powerful, but cumbersome, and doesn’t have any use cases outside of porn, gaming, and maybe exercise. AR is more useful, but the form factor has major trade-offs: poor battery life or few features.

Regardless, it’s clear that someone needs to upend the current touchscreen UX to displace the smartphone.

Most devices are still dumb

In sum, we spotted plenty of products that were solutions in search of a problem. AI and smart labels aside, most devices are still dumb: they’re not anticipating our needs and thus can’t take any useful action.

This brings us back to where we started: The future will not be prompted. While everyone is understandably focused on text prompts, we focused on hints that we could be heading toward a future of ambient data collection and anticipatory interactive technology. If brands can make the move from personalization to anticipation, our behavior will become the prompt for AI.

This is just the beginning of our Intelligently Artificial Issue’s next phase, in which we’ll be presenting unique insights driven by provocations and mapped to our three areas of focus:

  • Will AI drive a new UX?
  • Will AI reorganize the re-org?
  • Will brands matter in the AI era?

Are you interested in being part of the discourse, and contributing to this and future Living Issues? Is there a perspective you think we might be missing? Tell us what you think.

ces

Can

Be

Fixed

With

Discourse

Toby Daniels

Co-Founder, ON_Discourse

ON_Discourse co-founder Toby Daniels, a veteran of CES,
has taken over our CES planning meetings with hot takes
from his ample experience from the show. We thought we
should give him the pen to write a mini confessional about
the world’s biggest consumer tech conference
—ON_D

Toby Daniels

Co-Founder, ON_Discourse

CES is not new to me. I’ve been attending the event for over 15 years, having walked the crowded halls, networked in one event after the other, and seen countless overhyped tech unveilings.

Executives who report feeling disoriented and isolated.
Subscribe
To Our Newsletter

Receive CES event updates, plus preview articles and more.

CES’ primary problem is the whole event is confusing and crowded, while also
being extremely isolating. I am not alone in making this diagnosis; I have had
countless conversations with fellow convention goers and tech executives who
report feeling disoriented and lonely (especially during loud networking events).
This problem creates the conditions that lead to the second, most common issue.

In this mode, agreement is chosen over conflict, and innovation is nothing but an empty vessel of conventional ideas.

The event’s secondary problem mirrors a major issue in business, tech, and
media: groupthink. The show is an echo chamber with familiar faces and
conventional ideas wrapped in flashy tech. In this mode, agreement is chosen over
conflict, and innovation is nothing but an empty vessel of safe concepts.

CES is often touted as “a beacon for leaders in business and technology," where
the future meets today’s reality. While this paints a picture of innovation and
forward-thinking, it often masks the event’s superficial nature. CES, in all its
glory, can sometimes be more about shiny objects and getting into the hottest
party or VIP event rather than the depth of conversation. Despite the countless
curved TV screens that are never going to be a thing, I believe in the value of this
event and that we can fix CES.

The discipline of discourse is a forcing function that enables us to provoke, argue, challenge, and listen.
Learn More about
ON_Discourse

ON_Discourse is a private membership community and is made up of an expert network of business leaders who participate in the Discipline of Discourse in order to cultivate perspectives, decision-making, and meaningful relationships.

True perspective, I’ve learned, comes from heated debates, uncomfortable questions, and a willingness to listen to opposing viewpoints. This year, we are bringing our discourse and community to CES.

The discipline of discourse is a forcing function that lets us provoke, argue,
challenge, and listen – not just to reply, but to understand and consider. These
authentic engagements help us break free from the cycle of redundancy and
uncover truly groundbreaking ideas and new perspectives.

It's not just
about the technology; it's
about the intelligence behind it.
Learn more about
Intelligently Artificial Issue

How do we distinguish between artificial hype and intelligent opportunities?

At CES 2024, the ON_Discourse team will make the show in January worth
attending for our members, who will be organized into “Pods”, or small groups
that attend sessions together, join dinners, hit up parties, and practice the
discipline of discourse as a single unit. They will also get a guided experience,
including a kick-off briefing, a discourse-driven tour of the convention floor, and
invitations to a carefully curated list of events.

The discipline of discourse is a forcing function that lets us provoke, argue,
challenge, and listen – not just to reply, but to understand and consider. These
authentic engagements help us break free from the cycle of redundancy and
uncover truly groundbreaking ideas and new perspectives.

Apply for
Membership

Join ON_Discourse and get access to the ON_CES Intelligently Artificial Issue, exclusive events, and a discourse-driven floor tour showcasing the latest innovations in AI and tech.

As we move towards CES 2024, I feel a renewed sense of purpose. Our approach
is different – we won’t be there just to observe; we’ll be there to engage and
disrupt the status quo of conversations. We’re setting up to ensure our members
experience CES not as a showcase of gadgets, but as a forum of intelligent,
meaningful dialogue.

I am hopeful that with our concerted effort, this CES will mark a turning point.
Our next Issue, “Intelligently Artificial," will capture this shift from superficial
tech displays to rich, meaningful exchanges of ideas. It’s not just about the
technology; it’s about the intelligence behind it – the thoughts, the debates, and
the discourse.

Toby Daniels

Co-Founder, ON_Discourse